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The future of the FIFA World Cup is now hanging in the balance, and the different factions are taking shape in a conflict that could see UEFA, the powerhouse confederation in charge of Europe, split from world governing body FIFA and boycott future tournaments.
国际足联世界杯的未来如今悬而未决，各方派系在这场冲突中逐渐成型，这可能导致执掌欧洲足坛的强势联合会欧足联与国际足联这个世界管理机构分道扬镳，并抵制未来的赛事。
FIFA president Gianni Infantino's proposal to raise up to $20 billion through private investment through selling equity in the world's biggest sporting tournament threatens to trigger a split in the game that will change the World Cup as we know it.
国际足联主席詹尼·因凡蒂诺提出通过出售全球最大体育赛事股权来吸引私人投资、筹集至多200亿美元资金的提议，可能引发足坛分裂，这一变革将彻底改变我们所熟知的世界杯。
In exchange for allowing private investors to pay billions for involvement in the planning of future World Cups, Infantino is offering each of FIFA's 211 member associations the chance to make an instant $20 million by voting through his plan, with a further $66 million per association before 2038.
作为允许私人投资者斥资数十亿美元参与未来世界杯规划的交换条件，因凡蒂诺向国际足联的211个会员协会提供了一个机会：只要投票通过他的这项计划，每家协会就能立刻获得2000万美元，且到2038年之前，每家协会还可再获得6600万美元。
- A decade on, what is Infantino's legacy as FIFA president?
- 十年过去，因凡蒂诺作为国际足联主席留下了怎样的遗产？
- This World Cup was like no other as it inspired and incensed
- 这届世界杯前所未有，既鼓舞人心又令人愤慨
- Infantino clocked up over 65,000 miles on epic World Cup tour
- 因凡蒂诺在世界杯史诗之旅中飞行超6.5万英里
But UEFA has hit back at Infantino, saying that the sport is "not FIFA's to sell," and sources have told ESPN that the 55 member associations of Europe's governing body, including world champions Spain, will hold an emergency meeting this week to formalize opposition to the FIFA plans, with a World Cup boycott -- the next men's edition isn't until 2030 -- expected to be one option on the agenda.
但欧足联反击了因凡蒂诺，称这项运动“并非由国际足联独家掌控”，消息人士告诉ESPN，欧洲足球协会联盟的55个会员协会（包括世界冠军西班牙）将于本周召开紧急会议，正式明确对国际足联相关计划的反对立场，而抵制世界杯（下一届男足世界杯要到2030年举办）预计将是议程中的选项之一。
Infantino's move has generated widespread condemnation, but what is this push for private investment all about, and, crucially, what will happen next?
因凡蒂诺的举动引发了广泛谴责，但这场推动私人投资的行动究竟目的何在，至关重要的是，接下来又会发生什么？
What is FIFA president Infantino's plan?
国际足联主席因凡蒂诺的计划是什么？
In a statement released by FIFA to explain Infantino's proposal, the FIFA president outlined his intention to "unleash the commercial potential and opportunity that FIFA has" because "parts of the game have turned [football's] popularity into remarkable commercial value." In the crudest possible terms, that means to cash in on the success of the 2026 World Cup -- a tournament FIFA expects to generate an overall $15 billion in revenue when the financial figures are fully audited.
在国际足联发布的一份解释因凡蒂诺提案的声明中，这位国际足联主席阐述了他希望“释放国际足联所拥有的商业潜力和机遇”的意图，因为“这项运动的部分领域已将足球的人气转化为了可观的商业价值”。直白地说，这意味着要从2026年世界杯的成功中获利——国际足联预计，待财务数据完全审计后，该赛事将实现总计150亿美元的收入。
FIFA, a nonprofit organization based in Switzerland, plans to create a new subsidiary vehicle called FIFA Forward Enterprise that would take control of commercial and event operations, including broadcast, sponsorship, ticketing and licensing deals for tournaments, including the World Cup. In exchange for selling a stake in FFE to outside investors, FIFA would distribute the proceeds between its 211 associations with the promise of $20 million on approval and three further payments of $20 million, $22 million and $24 million between 2027 and 2038.
总部位于瑞士的非营利组织国际足联（FIFA）计划设立一家名为“国际足联前进企业（FIFA Forward Enterprise）”的新子机构，该机构将接管商业和赛事运营业务，包括世界杯等赛事的转播、赞助、票务及版权授权合作。国际足联计划向外部投资者出售国际足联前进企业的部分股份，所得收益将在其211个会员协会间分配；获批后将立即获得2000万美元，2027年至2038年间还将分三笔分别支付2000万美元、2200万美元和2400万美元。
FIFA president Gianni Infantino's shock announcement of its plans to raise up to $20 billion in private investment has been widely condemned by many other soccer bodies including UEFA. Could it still happen? Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images
国际足联主席詹尼·因凡蒂诺突然宣布计划通过私人投资筹集高达200亿美元的消息，遭到了包括欧足联在内的众多足球机构的广泛谴责。这一计划仍有可能实现吗？克里斯·布伦斯基尔/范塔西斯塔/Getty Images 摄
In its statement, FIFA said that a consultation process has begun following the receipt of a proposal that aims to unlock the full potential of FIFA's broadcast rights and sponsorships across its tournament portfolio in men's, women's and youth soccer. The proposal has been submitted by Thrive Eternal, a permanent holding company led by venture capitalist Josh Kushner, brother of U.S. President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.
国际足联在声明中表示，在收到一份旨在充分释放其在男足、女足及青少年足球赛事组合中转播权和赞助权全部潜力的提案后，相关咨询流程已启动。该提案由Thrive Eternal公司提交，这是一家由风险投资家乔希·库什纳执掌的永久控股公司，而乔希·库什纳是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳的弟弟。
In contrast to private equity investors, who typically target returns over five to 10 years, permanent holding companies aim to buy and control companies indefinitely. So any FIFA sale would be done on the understanding that it would be a permanent disposal of the stake.
与通常以5至10年为周期追求回报的私募股权投资者不同，永久控股公司的目标是无限期收购并控股企业。因此，国际足联的任何出售都将在明确其将永久处置所持股份的前提下进行。
FIFA says that it would still own and control FFE "via majority board representation and exclusive authority over football governance, competitions, the international match calendar and all regulatory and sporting decisions."
国际足联表示，其仍将“通过董事会多数席位以及对足球治理、赛事、国际比赛日程和所有监管与体育决策的专属权力”拥有并控制FFE。
Why has Infantino made this move now? Who benefits?
因凡蒂诺为何此时采取这一行动？谁将从中获益？
In his role as FIFA president, Infantino's primary duty is to safeguard the future of the game and ensure that it is healthy, vibrant and well-funded across the globe -- a responsibility he acknowledged in his statement about the FFE plan.
作为国际足联主席，因凡蒂诺的首要职责是维护足球运动的未来，确保全球范围内的足球运动健康、充满活力且资金充裕——他在关于FFE计划的声明中也承认了这一责任。
"We intend to invest heavily even in the smallest or most remote parts of the footballing world, places that are too often passed over," Infantino said. "Every FIFA Member Association, whatever its size, resources, or geographic location will have a voice and the opportunity to determine its own course.
“我们打算大力投资足球世界中哪怕最小或最偏远的地区，那些常常被忽视的地方，”因凡蒂诺说。“无论国际足联会员协会的规模、资源或地理位置如何，都将拥有话语权，并有机会决定自己的发展方向。
"Football has become a truly global game and so the benefits must be felt globally."
“足球已成为一项真正的全球性运动，因此其益处也必须惠及全球。”
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下载 ESPN 应用并启用 马克·奥格登的新闻提醒，以第一时间接收最新更新的推送通知。点击右上角的提醒铃铛开启提醒。如需了解更多信息，点击此处。
All 211 member nations stand to receive around $8 million in so-called "forward funding" between 2027 and 2030 on the back of the 2026 World Cup, so an instant jump to $20 million will clearly be regarded as a huge windfall by FIFA's smaller associations, and the financial benefits of the plan to the likes of New Caledonia, Gibraltar and San Marino are obvious.
得益于2026年世界杯，所有211个成员国在2027年至2030年间都将获得约800万美元的所谓“预拨款”，因此这一资金直接增至2000万美元，无疑会被国际足联的小型协会视为一笔巨额意外之财，而该计划对新喀里多尼亚、直布罗陀和圣马力诺等协会带来的经济收益也显而易见。
Why now? That is unclear. But the 2026 World Cup was an undoubted financial success, and Infantino's proximity to Trump and his influential and hugely wealthy circle has created an opportunity for FIFA and potential investors to exploit the sport's global popularity with a new, more aggressive approach to generating more income from it. Every member association will have a vote on the proposal, but there are unique dynamics at play when it comes to how any potential vote might play out.
为什么是现在？目前尚不清楚。但2026年世界杯无疑是一场财务上的成功，而因凡蒂诺与特朗普及其人脉广泛、财力雄厚的圈子走得很近，这为国际足联和潜在投资者创造了机会，让他们能借助这项运动的全球人气，采用全新、更激进的方式从中获取更多收益。所有会员协会都将对该提案进行投票，但任何潜在投票的结果如何，背后都存在着独特的影响因素。
"FIFA and this private equity new business is in a way the opposite to what happened with the attempted European Super League," said Pau López Gaitán, doctor of philosophy (University of Bristol), who specializes in private equity in soccer and the treatment of clubs and competitions as financial assets. "Now, the big [nations] are scared of the consequences and the small ones are a bit more hopeful because of the trickle-down promise that FIFA has given to everyone."
“国际足联和这项私募股权新业务，在某种程度上与欧洲超级联赛的未遂事件背道而驰，”布里斯托尔大学哲学博士鲍·洛佩斯·盖坦说。他专门研究足球领域的私募股权，以及将俱乐部和赛事视为金融资产的相关问题。“如今，大国对其后果感到担忧，而小国则多了几分希望，因为国际足联向所有人许下了惠及各方的承诺。”
From Infantino's perspective, he is up for reelection as FIFA president in 2027, and promising a financial windfall to so many associations might serve as an emphatic way to shore up his legacy.
从因凡蒂诺的角度来看，他将在2027年寻求连任国际足联主席，向如此多的协会承诺一笔巨额资金，或许能成为巩固其历史地位的有力方式。
What would private investors be getting for their money?
私人投资者能从这笔投资中获得什么？
While FIFA says it will retain control of FFE and oversight of future tournaments, the reality is that multibillion-dollar investors will expect a significant return on their purchase, and this opportunity certainly offers several routes to achieving that. By offering up the chance to influence broadcasting deals, ticket prices, commercial revenue, and potentially even the frequency, size and location of events, the worst-case scenario for the sport would be decisions being made to suit investors rather than the sport itself, from the players to the fans.
尽管国际足联表示将保留对FIFA未来赛事（FFE）的控制权和监管权，但现实情况是，数十亿美元的投资者会期望其投资获得可观回报，而这一机遇无疑为实现这一目标提供了多种途径。通过出让影响转播协议、票价、商业收入的机会，甚至可能涉及赛事举办频率、规模和举办地的决定权，这项运动面临的最糟糕情况是，相关决策将为迎合投资者而非运动本身——从球员到球迷——而制定。
For example, the change could lead to more regular tournaments and bigger tournaments to ensure that revenues continue to grow in line with any initial investment.
例如，这一变化可能会促成更多常规赛事和大型赛事的举办，以确保收入持续与初始投资保持同步增长。
"The World Cup is the biggest sporting event on the planet in terms of its popularity, reach, global impact and revenue," said Omar Chaudhuri, chief intelligence officer of Twenty First Group, London-based commercial brand advisers. "It's unrivaled: just look at the $15 billion revenue generated from this cycle. But the scarcity value -- it's held once every four years -- is part of its appeal, as is the chance to see all the world's best players in one place and the history of the competition."
总部位于伦敦的商业品牌咨询机构“二十一世纪集团”首席情报官奥马尔·乔杜里表示：“从受欢迎程度、覆盖范围、全球影响力和收入来看，世界杯是全球规模最大的体育赛事。它无可匹敌：仅看本届赛事周期带来的150亿美元收入就足以说明。而其四年一度的稀缺性价值，是吸引人们关注的原因之一，能在一处看到全球所有顶尖球员以及赛事的历史底蕴，同样是其魅力所在。”
Reports have suggested that the three-minute hydration breaks during the World Cup were individually worth $7-9 million to broadcasters in terms of commercial revenue, so they could they become a regular, and hugely lucrative, occurrence in future tournaments.
有报道称，世界杯期间这三分钟的补水时间，单场给广播公司带来的商业收入就高达700万至900万美元，因此它们有望在未来的赛事中成为常规且收益极为丰厚的环节。
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Infantino: FIFA proposal a golden opportunity for development
因凡蒂诺：国际足联提案是发展的黄金机遇
When Fox Sports secured English-language, U.S. broadcasting rights for the 2026 men's World Cup, the cost of the package was $485 million, but FIFA has already served notice that a similar package for the 2030 and 2034 editions will be valued from at least $1 billion. With outside investors influencing FFE decisions, another potential development could be an in-house, Netflix-style direct-to-consumer (DTC or D2C) deal where viewers would pay directly to watch rather than through a more traditional broadcast deal, which again could generate huge sums for FIFA and the investors.
当福克斯体育拿下2026年男足世界杯的美国英语转播权时，该转播套餐的费用为4.85亿美元，但国际足联已明确表示，2030年和2034年世界杯的同类转播套餐价值至少将达到10亿美元。随着外部投资者影响着福克斯体育娱乐（FFE）的决策，另一项潜在发展可能是推出内部的、类似奈飞（Netflix）的直对消费者（DTC或D2C）合作模式，观众需直接付费观看，而非通过更传统的转播协议，这同样能为国际足联和投资者带来巨额收益。
"D2C deals haven't always proved as successful as you might think, partly because viewers have certain viewing habits and things that they're used to," Chaudhuri said. "Therefore it can make more sense to invest more in the rights than what a D2C proposition might provide.
乔杜里表示：“直销面向消费者的项目并非总能如你所想的那般成功，部分原因是观众有固定的观看习惯和熟悉的事物。因此，投入更多资金购买版权，往往比布局直销面向消费者的业务更有意义。”
"The other challenge of a World Cup is that it's once every four years and a lot of these subscription models rely on providing content throughout the year. By and large, the best model still seems to create some competitive tension and sell rights to the highest bidder."
世界杯的另一个挑战在于它每四年才举办一次，而许多这类订阅模式都依赖于全年提供内容。总体而言，最佳模式似乎仍是制造一定的竞争张力，并将转播权售给出价最高的竞标者。
López Gaitán has a similar concern.
洛佩斯·加坦也有类似的担忧。
"This is a clear example of what happens when tournaments get financialized. The promise of an ever-growing valuation of the tournament is what drives private equity business crazy and what they see as appealing to the business," he told ESPN. "From the numbers mentioned so far, I would suggest that FIFA has undervalued its asset, which means they could get higher offers from sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, for instance.
“这是赛事金融化所引发后果的一个明显例证。赛事估值持续增长的前景让私募股权行业趋之若鹜，也被他们视为具有商业吸引力的东西，”他告诉ESPN。“从目前提到的数字来看，我认为国际足联低估了自身资产，这意味着他们本可以从中东主权财富基金等方面获得更高的报价。”
"The audience/supporter response is important, though. How fans react is crucial, as we saw with Super League. But how and where and when they could protest -- it is now July with no games for at least a month -- is another issue."
“不过，观众/支持者的反应至关重要。球迷的反应如何是关键，这一点我们从超级联赛的事件中就能看出来。但他们会以何种方式、在何地、在何时进行抗议——如今已是7月，且至少一个月内没有比赛——则是另一个问题。”
UEFA has condemned the plans. Why does it oppose them?
欧足联已谴责这些计划。其为何反对这些计划？
UEFA was first out of the blocks to condemn the proposals, saying they "cross a line that football's governing institutions should never cross." Concacaf, the North and Central American governing body, has also issued a statement voicing "deep concern over the lack of due process." Individual associations have spoken out too, with the English Football Association saying it was "completely unaware of the proposal" before FIFA's announcement to the media.
欧足联率先表态谴责这些提议，称其“越过了足球管理机构绝不应该触碰的红线”。北美及中美洲足球联合会（Concacaf）也发表声明，对“缺乏正当程序”表示“深感担忧”。各协会也纷纷发声，英格兰足球协会表示，在国际足联向媒体公布相关提议之前，自己“对此提案完全不知情”。
UEFA's opposition carries the most weight, however, because it is the most powerful of FIFA's six regional confederations. UEFA controls the Champions League, and Europe is home to the Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga and Serie A -- and five of the seven men's World Cup winners this century have been European nations.
不过欧足联的反对意见分量最重，因为它是国际足联六大地区足联中实力最强的。欧足联掌控着欧冠联赛，而欧洲则拥有英超联赛、西甲联赛、德甲联赛和意甲联赛——本世纪七支男足世界杯冠军队伍中有五支都来自欧洲国家。
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If UEFA nations boycott the World Cup, it would render the tournament meaningless as a competition.
如果欧足联成员国抵制世界杯，这将使这项赛事失去作为一项赛事的意义。
When Infantino proposed a two-year World Cup cycle in 2021, a UEFA boycott threat forced the FIFA president to back down. FIFA and UEFA -- and their presidents, Infantino and Aleksander Čeferin -- have been at loggerheads for a number of years, clashing over everything to do with the function of the game. Both sides have been trying to claim greater influence of the match calendar and the sport's financial power.
2021年，因凡蒂诺提出世界杯两年一届的赛制时，欧足联发出抵制威胁，迫使这位国际足联主席收回了提议。国际足联与欧足联——以及各自主席因凡蒂诺和亚历山大·切费林——多年来一直针锋相对，在与足球赛事运作相关的所有事务上发生冲突。双方都试图争取对赛事赛程以及这项运动经济影响力的更大话语权。
UEFA regards the revamped FIFA Club World Cup, an Infantino innovation, as a direct challenge to the Champions League and is preparing for Infantino's attempt to make that a biennial tournament. Sources have told ESPN that Infantino's latest proposals are another power play by the FIFA president and will be resisted by UEFA.
欧足联将因凡蒂诺主导的改版国际足联俱乐部世界杯视为对欧冠联赛的直接挑战，并正为因凡蒂诺将该赛事改为两年一届的计划做准备。消息人士告诉ESPN，因凡蒂诺的最新提议是这位国际足联主席的又一次权力博弈，必将遭到欧足联的抵制。
"We live in an era of breakaway competitions -- LIV Golf, Grand Slam Track -- but they struggle for an identity even among younger fans," Chaudhuri said. "It would be a risk for FIFA and UEFA if this proposal led to a split and different competitions."
“我们正处于赛事竞争白热化的时代——LIV高尔夫、大满贯赛道赛事皆是如此，但即便在年轻球迷群体中，这些赛事也难以确立自身的独特定位，”乔杜里表示。“若这项提案引发赛事分裂，催生不同的赛事体系，那对国际足联和欧足联而言将是一场风险。”
Why are the plans so controversial?
为何这些计划如此具有争议性？
There are many reasons, from sporting objections to more personal and political issues centered around Infantino.
原因有很多，从体育方面的反对意见，到围绕因凡蒂诺的更多个人和政治问题。
From the perspective of the game, selling off influence and control of the World Cup has led to fears voiced by supporters' groups of a further hike in ticket prices beyond the huge cost of this summer's tournament. With investors rather than sporting administrators potentially deciding on ticket prices and broadcast rights deals, supporters could be priced out of the game.
从赛事运营的角度来看，出售世界杯的影响力和控制权，让球迷团体担心在今年夏天赛事的高昂成本之外，门票价格还会进一步上涨。由于门票价格和转播权交易的定价权可能掌握在投资者而非体育管理者手中，球迷可能会因票价过高而无法观赛。
There is also the prospect of the World Cup being further expanded to 64 teams and staged in countries more likely to guarantee a massive profit, such as the United States, rather than rotated around the continents as it is now.
还有一种前景是世界杯将进一步扩军至64支球队，并在美国等更有可能确保巨额利润的国家举办，而非像现在这样在各大洲轮流举办。
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But the hostility toward Infantino is driven by a perception of oligarch behaviour -- a man so consumed by the power of his position that he has lost touch with the expectations of his role. His closeness to world leaders who include President Trump, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Russia President Vladimir Putin and the Qatari royal family has also prompted criticism of Infantino dispensing with due process to hand out tournament hosting rights and even a newly created FIFA Peace Prize to Trump at the World Cup draw this past December.
但因凡蒂诺招致的敌意源于人们认为他有寡头行径——这位身居高位后被权力冲昏头脑的人，已然脱离了自身角色的期望。他与特朗普总统、沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼、俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京以及卡塔尔王室等各国领导人过从甚密，这也引发了批评。有人指责他无视正当程序，分配世界杯举办权，甚至在去年12月的世界杯抽签仪式上，将新设立的国际足联和平奖授予了特朗普。
But ultimately, FIFA is the game's ruling body. Its role is to redistribute funds to all members rather than sell off a slice of its organization to wealthy outside investors whose primary objective is financial gain rather than the good of the game.
但归根结底，国际足联是这项运动的管理机构。其职责是向所有成员重新分配资金，而非将自身组织的一部分出售给富有的外部投资者——这些投资者的首要目标是获取经济利益，而非推动这项运动的发展。
Will other potential investors emerge?
还会有其他潜在投资者出现吗？
While the United States has become a significant driver of wealth and investment in world soccer in recent years -- 12 Premier League clubs have American owners or investors, including reigning champions Arsenal -- the Persian Gulf has also made a huge financial input into the game.
近年来，美国已成为世界足坛财富和投资的重要推动力——英超12家俱乐部拥有美国老板或投资者，包括卫冕冠军阿森纳——而波斯湾地区也为这项运动投入了巨额资金。
Saudi Arabia is scheduled to host the 2034 men's World Cup, and its Public Investment Fund is the majority owner of Premier League club Newcastle United. Qatar staged the 2022 men's World Cup and is a regular host of FIFA youth tournaments, while back-to-back Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain are owned by the Qatar Sports Investment group. Meanwhile, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi owns Manchester City and has funded the club's transformation into a serial winner since buying the team in 2008.
沙特阿拉伯将主办2034年男足世界杯，其公共投资基金是英超俱乐部纽卡斯尔联的多数股东。卡塔尔举办了2022年男足世界杯，也是国际足联青年锦标赛的常任主办方，而连续夺冠的欧冠联赛冠军巴黎圣日耳曼则由卡塔尔体育投资集团控股。与此同时，阿布扎比的谢赫·曼苏尔·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬持有曼彻斯特城的所有权，并自2008年收购该俱乐部以来，为其转型为常胜冠军球队提供了资金支持。
Elsewhere, although Chinese investment in European soccer has slowed dramatically in recent years, the prospect of buying a stake in FIFA might attract money from China. So while Thrive Eternal is the front-runner to fund Infantino's proposal, the immense wealth in the Middle East and China could lead to an even greater windfall for FIFA if the plan gets off the ground.
在其他地区，尽管近年来中国对欧洲足球的投资大幅放缓，但收购国际足联股份的前景或许会吸引中国资金。因此，尽管盛永集团是为因凡蒂诺的提案提供资金的领跑者，但倘若该计划得以实施，中东和中国的巨额财富有望为国际足联带来更为丰厚的意外之财。
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Ogden: World Cup controversy could damage Infantino's FIFA reelection
奥格登：世界杯争议或影响因凡蒂诺连任国际足联主席
The rich and powerful nations might be opposed, but plenty will back the plans, right?
那些富裕强国可能会反对，但肯定会有很多国家支持这些计划，对吧？
This is the key to Infantino's calculation. He would have known that UEFA would rail against the proposals, but the European confederation has only 55 members.
这就是因凡蒂诺计算的关键。他本就知道欧足联会强烈反对这些提案，而这个欧洲足球协会联盟只有55个成员。
FIFA votes work on a one-member, one-vote principle. If every European nation rejects the plan, that still leaves 156 associations across the globe, and it would require only a simple majority to pass the proposal.
国际足联的投票遵循一人一票原则。即便所有欧洲国家都否决该计划，全球仍有156个协会，而提案只需简单多数票即可通过。
Asia (47), Africa (54) and Oceania (13) would amount to 114 votes, with another 41 nations in Concacaf. With the vast majority of those national associations struggling to fund their programs, and unable to count on the wealth of European nations and the major countries in South America, it would make little sense financially for them to reject Infantino's plan.
亚洲（47票）、非洲（54票）和大洋洲（13票）共计114票，中北美及加勒比海地区足联还有41个国家。这些国家足协绝大多数都难以为自身项目提供资金，也无法指望欧洲国家和南美主要国家那样的财力支持，因此从经济角度来看，他们拒绝因凡蒂诺的计划是极不划算的。
So what happens next? How will it play out from here?
那么接下来会发生什么？这件事会如何发展？
In a letter to member associations, Infantino has said a decision must be taken by Sept. 19 -- less than eight weeks from now. So the likelihood is that UEFA will attempt to consolidate its World Cup boycott threat -- it might even consider withdrawing from FIFA itself -- and then try to persuade members in the rest of the world to turn their back on Infantino's plan.
在致各会员协会的一封信中，因凡蒂诺表示，相关决定必须在9月19日之前做出——距离现在还不到八周。因此，欧足联很可能会进一步强化其抵制世界杯的威胁——甚至可能考虑退出国际足联——然后试图说服全球其他地区的会员协会拒绝因凡蒂诺的这一计划。
That won't be easy. Money talks, especially for those smaller nations that will see the potential windfall as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
这绝非易事。金钱的力量不容小觑，尤其是对那些小国而言，他们将这笔潜在的意外之财视为千载难逢的机遇。
But a World Cup without Europe would totally devalue the competition, so UEFA has a strong hand to play. And if UEFA did walk away, the potential of an expanded European Championship -- with invites to aligned nations from South America, Asia, Africa, and North and Central America -- would create a rival tournament that would be much more appealing and lucrative.
但没有欧洲球队参加的世界杯会彻底削弱赛事的价值，因此欧足联掌握着绝对的主动权。而如果欧足联真的退出，扩军后的欧洲杯</b>——邀请来自南美洲、亚洲、非洲以及北美和中美洲的合作国家参赛——将打造出一项更具吸引力和盈利性的 rival 赛事。
But with this proposal creating so much noise, hostility and criticism, it might also be dead in the water long before Infantino's Sept. 19 deadline.
但由于这项提议引发了如此多的争议、敌意和批评，它或许在因凡蒂诺设定的9月19日最后期限到来之前就早已泡汤。
Will Infantino survive as FIFA president if this plan fails?
如果这项计划失败，因凡蒂诺还能保住国际足联主席的职位吗？
All politicians know that the first rule of politics is being able to count. Infantino knows he has his 2027 reelection in the bag due to the absence of an opponent and the promise of votes from so many nations across the globe.
所有政客都明白，从政的首要法则是会算账。因没有对手，再加上全球众多国家承诺投出选票，因凡蒂诺稳操2027年的连任胜局。
If his plan fails, however, it will be a humiliation for Infantino and could weaken him enough for a rival candidate to emerge. So this plan has become an existential crisis for the World Cup and for Infantino.
然而，如果他的计划失败，这将成为因凡蒂诺的耻辱，也可能严重削弱他，从而让竞争对手有机可乘。因此，这一计划已成为世界杯和因凡蒂诺的生存危机。
If he gets his way, his power will be even greater. But it is hard to see how Infantino wins and FIFA and UEFA remain aligned. The next two months are crucial for the future of soccer. The stakes really are that high.
如果他如愿以偿，他的权力将会更大。但很难想象因凡蒂诺会获胜，而国际足联与欧足联仍能保持一致。未来两个月对足球的未来至关重要，赌注确实如此之高。
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发表于 2026-7-31 15:35